Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $517 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$517.1
$26.91
94¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $398.57 | $413.76 | +$15.18 | 59% 1714-1182 (2896) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $86.91 | $90.65 | +$3.74 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 95.1¢ | $156.07 | $9.54 | +$4.99 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $200.59 | $2.6 | +$2.52 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.07 | $0.55 | +$0.48 | 18% 525-2347 (2872) |
Invested
$398.57
Value
$413.76
PnL
+$15.18
Record
59%
1714-1182 (2896)
balthazar<$100Invested
$86.91
Value
$90.65
PnL
+$3.74
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Invested
$156.07
Value
$9.54
PnL
+$4.99
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
Invested
$200.59
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$2.52
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.48
Record
18%
525-2347 (2872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.