Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 63¢ · $465 held · ends Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$464.8

Combined PnL

$59.29

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 63.3¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$282.18

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$52.06

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.59

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$7.23

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 62.8¢	$200.57	$251.89	+$51.32	47% 626-712 (1338)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$180.7	$168.03	-$7.95	22% 291-1025 (1316)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.2¢	$114.64	$132.57	+$18.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.7¢	$61.61	$35.46	-$26.17
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$13.74	$15.78	+$2.04	59% 1692-1154 (2846)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$7.36	$14.59	+$7.23	50% 1726-1710 (3436)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$15.81	$14.52	-$1.3	57% 13381-10228 (23609)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$200.57

Value

$251.89

PnL

+$51.32

Record

47%

626-712 (1338)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$180.7

Value

$168.03

PnL

-$7.95

Record

22%

291-1025 (1316)

Both legs:

No$114.6468.2¢+$18.22

Yes$61.6136.7¢-$26.17

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13.74

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$2.04

Record

59%

1692-1154 (2846)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.36

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$7.23

Record

50%

1726-1710 (3436)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.81

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$1.3

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.5%

63.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.