Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on November 9?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 48¢ · $538 held · ended Nov 9

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$538.39

Combined PnL

$78.13

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 47.5¢

-20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$333.37

Total Shares482

Combined PnL+$41.54

Yes4 traders

Total Value$125.33

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$36.59

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 57¢	$115.8	$156.43	+$40.63	— 0-14 (14)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 37.7¢	$76.08	$113.11	+$37.03	55% 29-24 (53)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$95.49	$79.69	-$15.8	68% 43-20 (63)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$71.9	$44.42	-$27.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.1¢	$23.59	$35.27	+$11.68
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$66.08	$61.4	-$4.2	53% 86-75 (161)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$38.68	$39.8	+$1.12	38% 93-154 (247)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$22.11	$25.17	+$3.05	80% 61-15 (76)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$16.77	$17.7	+$0.93	77% 53-16 (69)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$13.03	$13.2	+$0.18	43% 34-45 (79)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$10.79	$8.33	-$2.46	28% 55-139 (194)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$7.67	$7.82	+$0.15	44% 46-59 (105)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$6.33	$6.76	+$0.42	46% 42-50 (92)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$5.85	$5.11	-$0.74	39% 51-81 (132)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.07	$1.96	+$1.89	42% 16-22 (38)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.8	$1.93	+$0.13	0% 0-29 (29)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$115.8

Value

$156.43

PnL

+$40.63

Record

—

0-14 (14)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$76.08

Value

$113.11

PnL

+$37.03

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$95.49

Value

$79.69

PnL

-$15.8

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

Both legs:

No$71.972¢-$27.48

Yes$23.5937.1¢+$11.68

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

$61.4

PnL

-$4.2

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$38.68

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$1.12

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$22.11

Value

$25.17

PnL

+$3.05

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$16.77

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$0.93

Record

77%

53-16 (69)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$13.03

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.79

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$2.46

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$7.67

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.76

PnL

+$0.42

Record

46%

42-50 (92)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.74

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$1.89

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

0-29 (29)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.