Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 41¢ · $306 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$305.71
-$162.6
69.4¢ → 41¢
-41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Noavg 69.8¢ | $576.03 | $229.85 | -$161.71 | 38% 866-1436 (2302) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $36.7 | $49.95 | -$0.53 | 62% 667-404 (1071) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $11.25 | $15.65 | +$4.4 | 58% 21386-15516 (36902) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.02 | $10.26 | -$4.76 | 57% 736-565 (1301) |
Invested
$576.03
Value
$229.85
PnL
-$161.71
Record
38%
866-1436 (2302)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$36.7
Value
$49.95
PnL
-$0.53
Record
62%
667-404 (1071)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$15.65
PnL
+$4.4
Record
58%
21386-15516 (36902)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$4.76
Record
57%
736-565 (1301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.