Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on November 10?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$234.21
$17.83
55.3¢ → 51.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $191.44 | $208.32 | +$16.88 | 55% 29-24 (53) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.29 | $15.31 | -$0.99 | 68% 43-20 (63) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $17.06 | $10.58 | +$1.94 | 53% 86-75 (161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.