Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 8?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$342.41
-$5.72
56.1¢ → 55.4¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $211.47 | $206.85 | -$4.62 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
BI Bilberry | Noavg 55.3¢ | $131.05 | $131.1 | +$0.05 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $5.62 | $4.46 | -$1.16 | 59% 6954-4900 (11854) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.