Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 5?

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$196.8

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL+$215.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$80.05

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$18.26

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 84.5¢	$289.72	$342.88	+$53.16	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 73.9¢	$123.49	$165.89	+$42.4	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 60.9¢	$112.44	$126.02	+$13.57	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 92.4¢	$106.87	$114.28	+$7.41	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 88.2¢	$96.5	$108.73	+$12.23	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 68¢	$64.44	$79.7	+$25.46	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 68¢	$49.41	$72.67	+$23.27	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$56.26	$67.35	+$11.09	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 53.9¢	$131.43	$64.42	-$0.4	14% 508-3080 (3588)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$38.07	$44.17	+$6.1	41% 2318-3356 (5674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$31.92	$38.49	+$6.57	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$20.93	$29.82	+$8.89	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$24.47	$25.66	+$1.19	55% 4491-3700 (8191)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$9.79	$15.59	+$5.81	47% 2253-2525 (4778)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$16.49	$12.59	-$2.08	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$26.97	$10.33	-$16.64	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13	$3.77	+$2.59	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	—
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$3.84	$1.32	-$2.52	56% 664-524 (1188)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.5	$0.21	-$1.29	20% 2781-10948 (13729)

balthazar

Invested

$289.72

Value

$342.88

PnL

+$53.16

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$123.49

Value

$165.89

PnL

+$42.4

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

Poligarch

Invested

$112.44

Value

$126.02

PnL

+$13.57

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$106.87

Value

$114.28

PnL

+$7.41

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$96.5

Value

$108.73

PnL

+$12.23

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$64.44

Value

$79.7

PnL

+$25.46

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$49.41

Value

$72.67

PnL

+$23.27

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$56.26

Value

$67.35

PnL

+$11.09

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.43

Value

$64.42

PnL

-$0.4

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$38.07

Value

$44.17

PnL

+$6.1

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$31.92

Value

$38.49

PnL

+$6.57

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$20.93

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$8.89

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24.47

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$1.19

Record

55%

4491-3700 (8191)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$5.81

Record

47%

2253-2525 (4778)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$12.59

PnL

-$2.08

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.97

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$16.64

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$3.77

PnL

+$2.59

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.84

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$2.52

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.29

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.