Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 2?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 99¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$610.85

Combined PnL

$60.51

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 99.4¢

+40% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$610.26

Total Shares633

Combined PnL+$63.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$2.65

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 49.4¢	$111.5	$205.43	+$11.54	60% 2191-1470 (3661)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$64.85	$69.64	+$4.79	51% 1277-1234 (2511)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$59.83	$64.35	+$4.52	39% 678-1048 (1726)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$54.77	$63.25	+$8.48	50% 1539-1570 (3109)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70¢	$58.48	$42.82	-$4.58	17% 391-1917 (2308)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$44.28	$37	+$17.93	57% 16444-12573 (29017)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.49	$36.32	+$9.83	45% 908-1127 (2035)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$23.72	$29.44	+$5.72	39% 529-813 (1342)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$22.81	$26.2	+$3.39	42% 644-895 (1539)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 98¢	$22.51	$22.83	+$0.32	53% 7309-6449 (13758)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.75	$12.97	+$1.23	57% 3693-2731 (6424)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.4	$0.31	-$1.09	42% 707-967 (1674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.85	$0.28	-$1.57	41% 603-866 (1469)

241532532432

Invested

$111.5

Value

$205.43

PnL

+$11.54

Record

60%

2191-1470 (3661)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$64.85

Value

$69.64

PnL

+$4.79

Record

51%

1277-1234 (2511)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$59.83

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$4.52

Record

39%

678-1048 (1726)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$54.77

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$8.48

Record

50%

1539-1570 (3109)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$42.82

PnL

-$4.58

Record

17%

391-1917 (2308)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$44.28

Value

$37

PnL

+$17.93

Record

57%

16444-12573 (29017)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$26.49

Value

$36.32

PnL

+$9.83

Record

45%

908-1127 (2035)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.72

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$5.72

Record

39%

529-813 (1342)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$22.81

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$3.39

Record

42%

644-895 (1539)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$22.51

Value

$22.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

7309-6449 (13758)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.75

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$1.23

Record

57%

3693-2731 (6424)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.09

Record

42%

707-967 (1674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.57

Record

41%

603-866 (1469)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.