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No
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100NoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
No 100%
Total Value
$256.72
Combined PnL
$19.87
Smart Money Signal
No
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No7 traders
Total Value$256.72
Total Shares257
Combined PnL+$19.87
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 88%Yes — 12%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $256.2 | $256.72 | +$19.87 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 84.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
24
241532532432Invested
$256.2
Value
$256.72
PnL
+$19.87
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x068ff3e5...566e42
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-november-1-2026-18c