Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 2?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$89.67

Combined PnL

-$2.02

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$87.16

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$0.99

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.51

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$1.03

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.82	$59.18	-$0.64	55% 25959-21242 (47201)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.19	$14	-$0.18	79% 10611-2762 (13373)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.97	$8.87	-$0.1	37% 1393-2380 (3773)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.17	$5.11	-$0.07	37% 758-1274 (2032)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.03	$0.72	-$0.31	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.75	$0.57	-$0.18	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.68	$0.48	-$0.2	56% 3736-2986 (6722)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.55	$0.36	-$0.19	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.18	$0.14	-$0.04	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.13	$0.1	-$0.03	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.09	$0.07	-$0.02	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.13	$0.07	-$0.06	42% 1898-2620 (4518)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.82

Value

$59.18

PnL

-$0.64

Record

55%

25959-21242 (47201)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.18

Record

79%

10611-2762 (13373)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

1393-2380 (3773)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.18

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

3736-2986 (6722)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.