Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 1?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $781 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$780.8
-$10.81
80.3¢ → 76¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $330.96 | $334.22 | +$3.26 | 50% 650-641 (1291) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 80.6¢ | $201.23 | $191.71 | -$8.69 | 20% 317-1301 (1618) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $138.13 | $138.06 | -$0.07 | 59% 1820-1267 (3087) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $85.74 | $83.11 | -$2.63 | 50% 1841-1816 (3657) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $66.63 | $21.53 | -$3.85 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $10.99 | $12.17 | +$1.17 | 53% 6553-5771 (12324) |
Invested
$330.96
Value
$334.22
PnL
+$3.26
Record
50%
650-641 (1291)
IstarothInvested
$201.23
Value
$191.71
PnL
-$8.69
Record
20%
317-1301 (1618)
Invested
$138.13
Value
$138.06
PnL
-$0.07
Record
59%
1820-1267 (3087)
Invested
$85.74
Value
$83.11
PnL
-$2.63
Record
50%
1841-1816 (3657)
Invested
$66.63
Value
$21.53
PnL
-$3.85
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$1.17
Record
53%
6553-5771 (12324)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.