Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 10?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $710 held · ends Nov 10

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$709.5

Combined PnL

-$9.13

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 94.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$709.5

Total Shares768

Combined PnL-$9.13

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.1¢	$392.35	$384.1	-$8.25	55% 29-24 (53)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 92¢	$125.39	$103	+$0.98	42% 16-22 (38)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$89.29	$87.89	-$1.4	53% 86-75 (161)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$83.32	$82.71	-$0.61	— 0-14 (14)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$30.48	$30.54	+$0.06	77% 44-13 (57)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$8.85	$8.74	-$0.12	44% 46-59 (105)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$7.51	$7.71	+$0.21	43% 34-45 (79)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$4.82	$4.82	+$0	10% 15-136 (151)

241532532432

Invested

$392.35

Value

$384.1

PnL

-$8.25

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$125.39

Value

$103

PnL

+$0.98

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$89.29

Value

$87.89

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$83.32

Value

$82.71

PnL

-$0.61

Record

—

0-14 (14)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$30.48

Value

$30.54

PnL

+$0.06

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$0.12

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

15-136 (151)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.