Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on November 7?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.9¢ · $8 held · ends Nov 7

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$8.18

Combined PnL

$2.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.86

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.32

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$2.92

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.86	+$0	97% 264-7 (271)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.1	$1.59	+$1.49	72% 13920-5521 (19441)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$1.39	+$1.35	38% 7324-11759 (19083)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.26	$0.34	+$0.08	28% 2863-7356 (10219)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0

Record

97%

264-7 (271)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$1.49

Record

72%

13920-5521 (19441)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$1.35

Record

38%

7324-11759 (19083)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

2863-7356 (10219)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.0%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2378.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

2478.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.