Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on November 5?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 57¢ · $173 held · ended Nov 5

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$172.55

Combined PnL

$161.5

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$137.41

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$204.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$34.97

Total Shares185

Combined PnL-$43.29

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 6.8¢	$21.45	$80.89	+$206.03	45% 1780-2176 (3956)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$42.94	$32.65	-$6.14	58% 21143-15371 (36514)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.8¢	$61.73	$28.6	-$33.12	39% 835-1312 (2147)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$11.9	+$1.7	53% 23478-20703 (44181)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$31.8	$5.73	-$11.07	54% 10546-9124 (19670)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$10.25	$5.47	+$2.56	53% 8527-7603 (16130)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.85	+$0.95	17% 4489-21974 (26463)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$27.65	$2.65	-$0.31	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$54.66	$0.64	+$0.91	72% 13767-5236 (19003)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21.45

Value

$80.89

PnL

+$206.03

Record

45%

1780-2176 (3956)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.94

Value

$32.65

PnL

-$6.14

Record

58%

21143-15371 (36514)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.73

Value

$28.6

PnL

-$33.12

Record

39%

835-1312 (2147)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

23478-20703 (44181)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.8

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$11.07

Record

54%

10546-9124 (19670)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

8527-7603 (16130)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.95

Record

17%

4489-21974 (26463)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$27.65

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.66

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.91

Record

72%

13767-5236 (19003)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.