Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on November 6?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $609 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$609.02
$39.04
85.8¢ → 93.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $287.85 | $328.96 | +$41.11 | 40% 845-1252 (2097) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 92.9¢ | $289.65 | $187.84 | -$4.99 | 72% 13903-5480 (19383) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $47.38 | $46.72 | -$0.66 | 54% 12531-10868 (23399) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $11.6 | $39.76 | +$3.54 | 13% 533-3522 (4055) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $10.37 | $5.73 | +$0.04 | 44% 2309-2928 (5237) |
Invested
$287.85
Value
$328.96
PnL
+$41.11
Record
40%
845-1252 (2097)
LucerysInvested
$289.65
Value
$187.84
PnL
-$4.99
Record
72%
13903-5480 (19383)
Invested
$47.38
Value
$46.72
PnL
-$0.66
Record
54%
12531-10868 (23399)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$11.6
Value
$39.76
PnL
+$3.54
Record
13%
533-3522 (4055)
Invested
$10.37
Value
$5.73
PnL
+$0.04
Record
44%
2309-2928 (5237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.