Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on November 5?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 68¢ · $352 held · ends Nov 5

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$351.82

Combined PnL

-$14.08

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 67.5¢

-9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$350.28

Total Shares460

Combined PnL-$14.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.54

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.69

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 73.1¢	$224.22	$217.07	-$7.15	40% 827-1216 (2043)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$71.66	$26.6	+$4.09	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$29.38	$24.55	-$4.83	61% 15009-9460 (24469)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$24.56	$23.22	-$1.34	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$24.53	$20.1	-$4.43	50% 9914-9924 (19838)
Istaroth	Noavg 80¢	$308.26	$20.01	-$0.2	14% 513-3102 (3615)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$7.72	$7.65	-$0.07	53% 3941-3503 (7444)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.84	$4.21	-$0.63	61% 16044-10354 (26398)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.89	$3.52	-$0.37	47% 775-863 (1638)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$3.21	$3.35	+$0.14	44% 2233-2896 (5129)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$1.54	+$0.69	47% 1713-1907 (3620)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$224.22

Value

$217.07

PnL

-$7.15

Record

40%

827-1216 (2043)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$71.66

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$4.09

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.38

Value

$24.55

PnL

-$4.83

Record

61%

15009-9460 (24469)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.56

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$1.34

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.53

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$4.43

Record

50%

9914-9924 (19838)

Istaroth

Invested

$308.26

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

3941-3503 (7444)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.63

Record

61%

16044-10354 (26398)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

775-863 (1638)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.14

Record

44%

2233-2896 (5129)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.69

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.