Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on November 4?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 54¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$242.64

Combined PnL

$2.02

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 53.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$104.34

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$3.13

No5 traders

Total Value$138.3

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$1.11

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$83.55	$83.55	+$0	49% 740-760 (1500)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 58¢	$62.12	$62.12	+$0	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$40.16	$35.2	-$5.27	53% 3423-3055 (6478)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$18.29	$20.79	+$3.13	16% 416-2177 (2593)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$17.4	$20.76	+$3.36	61% 14060-8913 (22973)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$12.26	$12.81	+$0.54	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 56¢	$7.17	$7.42	+$0.26	54% 450-382 (832)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.55

Value

$83.55

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

740-760 (1500)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$62.12

Value

$62.12

PnL

+$0

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$40.16

Value

$35.2

PnL

-$5.27

Record

53%

3423-3055 (6478)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.29

Value

$20.79

PnL

+$3.13

Record

16%

416-2177 (2593)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$20.76

PnL

+$3.36

Record

61%

14060-8913 (22973)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.26

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$0.54

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

450-382 (832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.