Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on November 3?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.9¢ · $8 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$8.35
-$11.97
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $203.77 | $6.21 | -$12.31 | 47% 771-855 (1626) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.66 | $2.08 | +$0.41 | 38% 911-1485 (2396) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $2.12 | $0.06 | -$0.07 | 50% 8141-8288 (16429) |
Invested
$203.77
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$12.31
Record
47%
771-855 (1626)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.41
Record
38%
911-1485 (2396)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
8141-8288 (16429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.