Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 7?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$471.71
-$6.4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $248.04 | $241.65 | -$6.4 | 32% 2225-4728 (6953) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $217.86 | $230.06 | +$49.29 | 41% 843-1233 (2076) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $166.04 | $163.66 | -$2.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $14.73 | $66.4 | +$51.67 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.