Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 7?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 53¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 7

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$836.07

Combined PnL

-$11.72

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 52.5¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$594.88

Total Shares877

Combined PnL-$38.55

Yes4 traders

Total Value$179.9

Total Shares560

Combined PnL+$26.84

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 75.1¢	$635.55	$575.59	-$60.32	32% 2245-4750 (6995)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$152.34	$168.11	+$15.81	56% 777-601 (1378)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$66.32	$61.29	-$0.29	54% 10711-9227 (19938)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.2¢	$30.28	$34.19	+$4.33
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$31.17	$27.1	-$4.62
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$6.31	$12.67	+$22.12	44% 2352-2965 (5317)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$17.16	$6.62	-$0.36	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$2.55	$6.4	+$3.85	42% 2415-3350 (5765)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$4.36	$3.16	+$7.39	19% 2965-12539 (15504)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$2.44	$2.23	-$0.22	45% 1854-2248 (4102)

hello.67

Invested

$635.55

Value

$575.59

PnL

-$60.32

Record

32%

2245-4750 (6995)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.34

Value

$168.11

PnL

+$15.81

Record

56%

777-601 (1378)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$66.32

Value

$61.29

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

10711-9227 (19938)

Both legs:

Yes$30.2841.2¢+$4.33

No$31.1761.5¢-$4.62

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$22.12

Record

44%

2352-2965 (5317)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.16

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.36

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$3.85

Record

42%

2415-3350 (5765)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.36

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$7.39

Record

19%

2965-12539 (15504)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.22

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.