Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 8?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 8

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$99.21

Combined PnL

$37.36

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.82

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$33.64

No2 traders

Total Value$43.39

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$3.72

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$387.72	$50.5	+$32.67	37% 891-1523 (2414)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$37.16	$41.01	+$3.86	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$7.35	$5.32	+$0.97	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.52	$2.38	-$0.14	53% 8676-7782 (16458)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$387.72

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$32.67

Record

37%

891-1523 (2414)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.16

Value

$41.01

PnL

+$3.86

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

8676-7782 (16458)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.