Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 4?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 51¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$292.9
$41.39
47.5¢ → 51¢
+7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 24.1¢ | $48.3 | $105 | +$56.7 | 42% 6086-8439 (14525) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 61.7¢ | $104.93 | $88.39 | -$16.54 | 79% 10898-2965 (13863) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $30.73 | $29.55 | -$1.17 | 54% 26594-22226 (48820) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $20.96 | $19.75 | -$0.2 | 16% 416-2180 (2596) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $15.41 | $14.72 | -$0.69 | 43% 2818-3713 (6531) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $14.25 | $14.19 | -$0.06 | 60% 10619-7212 (17831) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $20 | $8.1 | +$3.5 | 47% 771-855 (1626) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $6.4 | +$0 | 31% 2028-4546 (6574) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.2 | -$0.15 | 54% 456-392 (848) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.2 | +$0 | 57% 17528-13093 (30621) |
Invested
$48.3
Value
$105
PnL
+$56.7
Record
42%
6086-8439 (14525)
LucerysInvested
$104.93
Value
$88.39
PnL
-$16.54
Record
79%
10898-2965 (13863)
balthazar<$100Invested
$30.73
Value
$29.55
PnL
-$1.17
Record
54%
26594-22226 (48820)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.96
Value
$19.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
16%
416-2180 (2596)
Invested
$15.41
Value
$14.72
PnL
-$0.69
Record
43%
2818-3713 (6531)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$14.19
PnL
-$0.06
Record
60%
10619-7212 (17831)
Invested
$20
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$3.5
Record
47%
771-855 (1626)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$6.4
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2028-4546 (6574)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
456-392 (848)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
17528-13093 (30621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.