Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 10?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 48¢ · $384 held · ends Nov 10

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$384.3

Combined PnL

$7.64

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 48¢

-12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$252.96

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$64.64

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$29.65

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR	Noavg 51.7¢	$129.23	$131.22	+$1.99	17% 21-105 (126)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$73.44	$66.69	-$6.74	68% 43-20 (63)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.1¢	$29.51	$38.74	+$9.23
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$43.92	$27.95	-$15.97
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$32.25	$61.95	+$29.7	55% 29-24 (53)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$70.62	$53.02	-$17.59	77% 44-13 (57)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$16.18	$16.18	-$0.76	— 0-14 (14)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$13.83	$12.63	-$1.2	43% 34-45 (79)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	38% 93-154 (247)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$12.53	$9.34	-$3.19	6% 6-91 (97)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$9.81	$9.18	-$0.63	39% 51-81 (132)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$7.54	$6.52	-$1.01	80% 61-15 (76)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$8.86	$5.47	+$0.39	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$2.75	$2.69	-$0.05	45% 53-66 (119)

northdrawerCTR

Invested

$129.23

Value

$131.22

PnL

+$1.99

Record

17%

21-105 (126)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$73.44

Value

$66.69

PnL

-$6.74

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

Both legs:

Invested

$32.25

Value

$61.95

PnL

+$29.7

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$70.62

Value

$53.02

PnL

-$17.59

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$16.18

PnL

-$0.76

Record

—

0-14 (14)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$13.83

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$1.2

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$12.53

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$3.19

Record

6-91 (97)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.63

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.54

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$1.01

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.86

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

53-66 (119)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.