Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 52¢ · $673 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$673.26
$57.47
36.8¢ → 52¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $252.54 | $309.69 | +$57.15 | 50% 673-672 (1345) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $129.38 | $156.31 | +$26.93 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 67.8¢ | $150.16 | $123.55 | -$26.61 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $89.04 | $83.72 | -$4.16 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $36.47 | $42.29 | +$5.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.9¢ | $50.88 | $41.43 | -$9.47 |
Invested
$252.54
Value
$309.69
PnL
+$57.15
Record
50%
673-672 (1345)
Invested
$129.38
Value
$156.31
PnL
+$26.93
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Invested
$150.16
Value
$123.55
PnL
-$26.61
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$89.04
Value
$83.72
PnL
-$4.16
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.