Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 31?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 48¢ · $261 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$261.44
$8.84
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $207.9 | $216.62 | +$8.72 | 50% 1806-1787 (3593) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 50.3¢ | $29.88 | $29.12 | -$0.76 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $14.82 | $15.7 | +$0.88 | 55% 394-317 (711) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.