Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $698 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$697.97
-$15.76
97.3¢ → 93.7¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $501.38 | $485.88 | -$15.51 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $149.44 | $148.02 | -$1.41 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $50.79 | $48.87 | +$0.99 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $24.56 | $13.84 | +$0.09 | 36% 14999-27063 (42062) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.29 | $1.37 | +$0.08 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
Invested
$501.38
Value
$485.88
PnL
-$15.51
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
balthazarInvested
$149.44
Value
$148.02
PnL
-$1.41
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
Invested
$50.79
Value
$48.87
PnL
+$0.99
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
Invested
$24.56
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$0.09
Record
36%
14999-27063 (42062)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.