Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 61¢ · $643 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$643.33
-$32.75
47.6¢ → 61¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 46¢ | $363.88 | $356.31 | -$47.16 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 48.2¢ | $196.6 | $186.33 | -$10.27 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 54¢ | $69.05 | $91.39 | +$22.34 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $6.96 | $9.3 | +$2.34 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
Invested
$363.88
Value
$356.31
PnL
-$47.16
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$196.6
Value
$186.33
PnL
-$10.27
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$69.05
Value
$91.39
PnL
+$22.34
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$2.34
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.