Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 24¢ · $484 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$483.83
-$0.99
19.4¢ → 24¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $221.71 | $215.5 | -$1.88 | 21% 295-1086 (1381) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80.8¢ | $174.16 | $169.17 | -$5.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20¢ | $43.06 | $46.34 | +$3.24 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $180.33 | $176.74 | -$3.59 | 47% 628-714 (1342) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $67.89 | $70.35 | +$2.46 | 62% 1438-883 (2321) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $13.56 | $13.98 | +$0.42 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $4.16 | $3.89 | -$0.27 | 59% 1714-1183 (2897) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $3.38 | $3.37 | -$0.01 | 53% 6459-5657 (12116) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$221.71
Value
$215.5
PnL
-$1.88
Record
21%
295-1086 (1381)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.33
Value
$176.74
PnL
-$3.59
Record
47%
628-714 (1342)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$67.89
Value
$70.35
PnL
+$2.46
Record
62%
1438-883 (2321)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$13.98
PnL
+$0.42
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$0.27
Record
59%
1714-1183 (2897)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
6459-5657 (12116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.