Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 8?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 60¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$221.89
$10.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-30 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry | Noavg 72.5¢ | $192.11 | $201.3 | +$9.19 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $15.19 | $8.22 | -$6.98 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $9.43 | $7.75 | -$1.68 | 53% 8691-7793 (16484) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $6.92 | $3.93 | -$0.76 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $13.72 | $0.69 | +$10.37 | 19% 2967-12558 (15525) |
Invested
$192.11
Value
$201.3
PnL
+$9.19
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Invested
$15.19
Value
$8.22
PnL
-$6.98
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$9.43
Value
$7.75
PnL
-$1.68
Record
53%
8691-7793 (16484)
Invested
$6.92
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.76
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$13.72
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$10.37
Record
19%
2967-12558 (15525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.