Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 5?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $44 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$44.07
$19.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $16.14 | $16.93 | +$0.79 | 54% 10543-9121 (19664) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $67.43 | $10.31 | +$2.79 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $17.9 | $9.9 | +$0.95 | 43% 2311-3103 (5414) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 8.9¢ | $3.41 | $6.61 | +$19.96 | 38% 1263-2071 (3334) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $18.83 | $0.24 | -$6.11 | 19% 2850-12163 (15013) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $2.58 | $0.06 | +$1.62 | 56% 694-543 (1237) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $93.84 | $0.01 | -$0.35 | 73% 13760-5199 (18959) |
Invested
$16.14
Value
$16.93
PnL
+$0.79
Record
54%
10543-9121 (19664)
Invested
$67.43
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$2.79
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
Invested
$17.9
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.95
Record
43%
2311-3103 (5414)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$19.96
Record
38%
1263-2071 (3334)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$18.83
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$6.11
Record
19%
2850-12163 (15013)
Invested
$2.58
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$1.62
Record
56%
694-543 (1237)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$93.84
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.35
Record
73%
13760-5199 (18959)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.