Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 5?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 90¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 5

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$115.83

Combined PnL

$9.4

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 89.8¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$89.09

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$14.42

Yes3 traders

Total Value$26.16

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$23.81

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$63.34	$27.82	-$4.6	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$29.15	$22.83	-$6.31	46% 10400-12132 (22532)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$18.83	$19.45	+$13.1	20% 2788-10990 (13778)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$16.14	$14.04	-$2.1	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 89¢	$20	$12.95	-$0.41	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$2.58	$4.8	+$1.62	56% 677-530 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$4.12	$3.85	-$0.27	39% 1113-1749 (2862)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.88	$3.84	-$0.05	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 90¢	$93.47	$3.77	-$0.69	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yes	$3.41	$1.92	+$9.1	41% 1238-1808 (3046)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.34

Value

$27.82

PnL

-$4.6

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$22.83

PnL

-$6.31

Record

46%

10400-12132 (22532)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.83

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$13.1

Record

20%

2788-10990 (13778)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.14

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$2.1

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

123987456<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$0.41

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1.62

Record

56%

677-530 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

1113-1749 (2862)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$93.47

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.69

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$9.1

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.