Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 6?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 54¢ · $22 held · ends Nov 6

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$22.5

Combined PnL

$0.9

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$14.13

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.37

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$0.74

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.89	+$0.49	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$3.62	$4.77	+$0.42	53% 4081-3603 (7684)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$3.28	$3.6	+$0.32	58% 21162-15379 (36541)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$36.63	$3.23	-$0.34	72% 13773-5258 (19031)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.62

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

4081-3603 (7684)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.63

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.34

Record

72%

13773-5258 (19031)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.