Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$147.34
-$2.1
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryARB<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $55.89 | $63.9 | +$8.02 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $33.87 | $33.87 | +$5.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32¢ | $27.46 | $30.03 | +$2.57 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $60.14 | $58.25 | -$1.89 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $25.4 | $25.19 | -$0.21 | 50% 2042-2017 (4059) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.