Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 5?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $398 held · ends Nov 5

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$397.54

Combined PnL

-$11.48

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 68¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$93.28

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$14.68

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.2

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$3.2

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryARB<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$164.3	$224.24	+$59.94	53% 3929-3484 (7413)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.5¢	$114.03	$145.49	+$31.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$50.27	$78.75	+$28.48
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 59.7¢	$93.81	$70.82	-$22.99	54% 10260-8877 (19137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.7¢	$56.38	$36.36	-$20.02
└ No leg	Noavg 66.8¢	$37.44	$34.46	-$2.98
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 71¢	$35.79	$26.7	-$9.09	46% 10368-12079 (22447)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$19.08	$18.36	-$0.72	56% 664-524 (1188)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 37¢	$11.1	$15.9	+$4.8	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$21.02	$15.9	-$5.12	47% 8454-9632 (18086)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$6	$9.2	+$3.2	20% 2639-10442 (13081)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$27.29	$6.01	-$7.56	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.64	$3.78	+$1.14	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.6	$3.72	+$1.12	39% 1093-1715 (2808)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 39¢	$2.01	$2.9	+$0.74	41% 1203-1759 (2962)

BilberryARB<$100

Invested

$164.3

Value

$224.24

PnL

+$59.94

Record

53%

3929-3484 (7413)

Both legs:

No$114.0341.5¢+$31.46

Yes$50.2729.4¢+$28.48

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.81

Value

$70.82

PnL

-$22.99

Record

54%

10260-8877 (19137)

Both legs:

Yes$56.3859.7¢-$20.02

No$37.4466.8¢-$2.98

god83743894<$100

Invested

$35.79

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$9.09

Record

46%

10368-12079 (22447)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$18.36

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$4.8

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$21.02

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$5.12

Record

47%

8454-9632 (18086)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$3.2

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$7.56

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$1.14

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$1.12

Record

39%

1093-1715 (2808)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.74

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.