Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 2?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 2

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$171.1

Combined PnL

-$36.36

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 97.9¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$148.11

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$4.31

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.99

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$40.67

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 74¢	$43.69	$53.75	+$10.06	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$26.34	$27.41	+$1.07	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$45.81	$20.98	-$38.56	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$19.15	$17.83	-$1.32	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$18.64	$16.96	-$1.67	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$11.88	$10.73	-$1.14	56% 3736-2986 (6722)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$10.05	$9.08	-$0.97	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$7.65	$6.96	-$0.69	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$5.29	$4.32	-$0.97	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.86	$1.51	-$0.35	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.11	$1.06	-$0.05	60% 7178-4743 (11921)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$3.57	$0.5	-$1.77	57% 17245-12903 (30148)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$43.69

Value

$53.75

PnL

+$10.06

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.34

Value

$27.41

PnL

+$1.07

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.81

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$38.56

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.15

Value

$17.83

PnL

-$1.32

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.64

Value

$16.96

PnL

-$1.67

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.88

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$1.14

Record

56%

3736-2986 (6722)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$0.97

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$0.69

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.97

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.05

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.77

Record

57%

17245-12903 (30148)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.