Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on November 1?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $125 held · ended Nov 1

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$125.4

Combined PnL

-$57.85

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$91.65

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$9.67

Yes1 trader

Total Value$33.75

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$67.52

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$64.03	$62.19	+$7.05	56% 14224-11027 (25251)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$73.64	$33.75	-$67.52	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$18.64	$19.96	+$1.32	18% 365-1632 (1997)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.2	$9.5	+$1.3	53% 6687-5886 (12573)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.03

Value

$62.19

PnL

+$7.05

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.64

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$67.52

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$18.64

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$1.32

Record

18%

365-1632 (1997)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

53%

6687-5886 (12573)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.