Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $267 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$267
$56.59
60.7¢ → 78.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $124.48 | $176 | +$51.52 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $27.33 | $36.03 | +$8.7 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $25.11 | $20.71 | -$2.41 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $15.27 | $14.26 | -$1.01 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
Invested
$124.48
Value
$176
PnL
+$51.52
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$27.33
Value
$36.03
PnL
+$8.7
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
Invested
$25.11
Value
$20.71
PnL
-$2.41
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15.27
Value
$14.26
PnL
-$1.01
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.