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fildoroCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$62.54
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares214
Combined PnL-$62.54
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $61.14 | — | -$61.14 | 62% 1439-887 (2326) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 20% 305-1204 (1509) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21037-13385 (34422) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 1860-2291 (4151) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 66.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1804-1786 (3590) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13657-10450 (24107) |
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$61.14
Value
—
PnL
-$61.14
Record
62%
1439-887 (2326)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
20%
305-1204 (1509)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21037-13385 (34422)
12
123987456<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
1860-2291 (4151)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1804-1786 (3590)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13657-10450 (24107)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x596c3fd7...5e9c1d
Slug
highest-temperature-in-moscow-on-october-30-2026-11c