Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 5?

Resolved No. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$15.35

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$15.35

No7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.83	—	-$14.83	38% 2378-3821 (6199)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.47	—	-$0.47	28% 2794-7224 (10018)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$77.32	$0	-$0	72% 13834-5358 (19192)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	52% 30902-28975 (59877)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	No	—	—	+$0	34% 19212-36836 (56048)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	53% 23554-20762 (44316)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	38% 1203-1987 (3190)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	—	—	+$0	42% 2335-3178 (5513)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.3	—	+$0	39% 1263-2006 (3269)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	53% 4523-4027 (8550)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.33	—	+$0	45% 1793-2189 (3982)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$14.83

Value

—

PnL

-$14.83

Record

38%

2378-3821 (6199)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.47

Value

—

PnL

-$0.47

Record

28%

2794-7224 (10018)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

Invested

$77.32

Value

$0

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

13834-5358 (19192)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

30902-28975 (59877)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

19212-36836 (56048)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

23554-20762 (44316)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1203-1987 (3190)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

2335-3178 (5513)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1263-2006 (3269)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4523-4027 (8550)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.33

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

1793-2189 (3982)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x060e4d17...58c6a8

Slug

highest-temperature-in-milan-on-november-5-2026-10c

Traders in this Market

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

No — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

123987456

Yes — $0

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

No — $0

Trade on Polymarket