Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 7?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 22¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 7

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$55.88

Combined PnL

$5.86

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.27

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$8.88

No1 trader

Total Value$15.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$3.03

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$27.78	$36.67	+$8.88	53% 4111-3681 (7792)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$18.63	$15.6	-$3.03	53% 23800-20961 (44761)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.6	-$0	19% 2914-12353 (15267)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.78

Value

$36.67

PnL

+$8.88

Record

53%

4111-3681 (7792)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$3.03

Record

53%

23800-20961 (44761)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0

Record

19%

2914-12353 (15267)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.