Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 15?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $466 held · ended Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$465.86

Combined PnL

$40.33

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 97.3¢

+7% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$465.85

Total Shares476

Combined PnL+$40.33

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.1¢	$352.36	$297.02	+$21.12	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$30.91	$40.12	+$9.22	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$35.72	$38.37	+$2.65	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$21.32	$23.4	+$2.08	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$9.87	$10.78	+$0.91	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$9.99	$9.84	-$0.14	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.81	$9.25	+$1.44	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$6.92	$8.2	+$1.29	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92¢	$7.36	$7.84	+$0.48	57% 836-638 (1474)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.99	$6	+$1.01	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.75	$5.09	+$0.34	60% 874-593 (1467)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$5	$4.97	-$0.03	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	50% 919-925 (1844)

241532532432

Invested

$352.36

Value

$297.02

PnL

+$21.12

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.91

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$9.22

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$35.72

Value

$38.37

PnL

+$2.65

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$21.32

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$2.08

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$0.91

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$1.44

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.29

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$0.48

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

PnL

+$1.01

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.34

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.