Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 8?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 47¢ · $326 held · ends Nov 8

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$325.92

Combined PnL

$31.83

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 47¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$216.37

Total Shares461

Combined PnL+$47.91

No6 traders

Total Value$109.55

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$16.08

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$162.8	$207	+$44.21	38% 886-1419 (2305)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$57.09	$49.97	-$7.12	52% 31261-29162 (60423)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$26.34	$23.25	-$3.09	54% 10724-9236 (19960)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$10.7	-$1.9	19% 2966-12543 (15509)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59¢	$11.8	$10.6	-$1.2	53% 24327-21391 (45718)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$8.95	$7.67	-$1.27	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$8.85	$7.36	-$1.5	53% 8682-7790 (16472)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$4.75	$5.17	+$0.42	32% 2247-4751 (6998)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10	$4.2	+$3.29	28% 3025-7837 (10862)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$162.8

Value

$207

PnL

+$44.21

Record

38%

886-1419 (2305)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.09

Value

$49.97

PnL

-$7.12

Record

52%

31261-29162 (60423)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.34

Value

$23.25

PnL

-$3.09

Record

54%

10724-9236 (19960)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$1.9

Record

19%

2966-12543 (15509)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

24327-21391 (45718)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$1.27

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

8682-7790 (16472)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.42

Record

32%

2247-4751 (6998)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$3.29

Record

28%

3025-7837 (10862)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.