Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 8?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 88¢ · $424 held · ended Nov 8

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$424.01

Combined PnL

$14.28

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 88¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$392.91

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$21.6

No8 traders

Total Value$31.09

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$7.32

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 52¢	$171.07	$188.04	+$16.97	21% 924-3465 (4389)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 58.5¢	$139.17	$135.31	-$3.87	25% 2350-6994 (9344)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 64.5¢	$68.12	$36.09	+$2.59	55% 25944-21274 (47218)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$25.87	$31.79	+$5.92	53% 5064-4411 (9475)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$10.89	$9.9	-$0.99	47% 47377-53600 (100977)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$19	$5.49	-$3.02	43% 5517-7216 (12733)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 10.1¢	$2.71	$3.88	+$1.18	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$5.35	$3.52	-$1.83	70% 16734-7322 (24056)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 16.6¢	$4.66	$3.09	-$1.58	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$1.6	$2.2	+$0.6	30% 35254-83610 (118864)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 24.3¢	$3.81	$1.81	-$2	46% 6162-7324 (13486)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$1.71	$1.69	-$0.02	46% 6599-7734 (14333)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 25.1¢	$5.28	$1.21	+$0.33	22% 3281-11775 (15056)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$171.07

Value

$188.04

PnL

+$16.97

Record

21%

924-3465 (4389)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$139.17

Value

$135.31

PnL

-$3.87

Record

25%

2350-6994 (9344)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.12

Value

$36.09

PnL

+$2.59

Record

55%

25944-21274 (47218)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.87

Value

$31.79

PnL

+$5.92

Record

53%

5064-4411 (9475)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.99

Record

47%

47377-53600 (100977)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$3.02

Record

43%

5517-7216 (12733)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$1.18

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.35

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$1.83

Record

70%

16734-7322 (24056)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$1.58

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

30%

35254-83610 (118864)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.81

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$2

Record

46%

6162-7324 (13486)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

6599-7734 (14333)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.33

Record

22%

3281-11775 (15056)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.