Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 6?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $496 held · ends Nov 6

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$495.66

Combined PnL

$32.47

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 27.5¢

-16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$52.94

Total Shares74

Combined PnL+$10.18

Yes6 traders

Total Value$102.65

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$22.28

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$325.67	$340.07	+$149.55	38% 859-1414 (2273)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.4¢	$211.96	$225.41	+$142.57
└ No leg	Noavg 69.5¢	$107.67	$114.66	+$6.99
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$43.9	$49.2	+$5.3	53% 23775-20945 (44720)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.3¢	$30.33	$33.28	+$2.95	13% 534-3548 (4082)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$30.45	$27.3	-$3.15	57% 729-561 (1290)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$36.25	$24.97	-$11.13	53% 4101-3668 (7769)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.7	$8.87	+$7.17	28% 2863-7356 (10219)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$5.33	$6.85	-$0.4	62% 658-398 (1056)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$57.25	$3.74	+$4.88	52% 30994-29002 (59996)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$89.95	$1.37	+$26.83	72% 13920-5521 (19441)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$325.67

Value

$340.07

PnL

+$149.55

Record

38%

859-1414 (2273)

Both legs:

Yes$211.9624.4¢+$142.57

No$107.6769.5¢+$6.99

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$43.9

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$5.3

Record

53%

23775-20945 (44720)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.33

Value

$33.28

PnL

+$2.95

Record

13%

534-3548 (4082)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.45

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$3.15

Record

57%

729-561 (1290)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.25

Value

$24.97

PnL

-$11.13

Record

53%

4101-3668 (7769)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$7.17

Record

28%

2863-7356 (10219)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.33

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

658-398 (1056)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$4.88

Record

52%

30994-29002 (59996)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.95

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$26.83

Record

72%

13920-5521 (19441)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.