Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 5?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 31¢ · $246 held · ends Nov 5

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$245.68

Combined PnL

$6.33

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$123.46

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$3.42

No10 traders

Total Value$122.21

Total Shares192

Combined PnL+$2.91

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 34¢	$120.04	$123.46	+$3.42	44% 789-985 (1774)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$43.99	$46.05	+$2.05	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$16.35	$16.29	-$0.06	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$11.58	$11.54	-$0.04	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$8.97	$9.27	+$0.3	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$8.94	$9.24	+$0.29	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$8.93	$9.22	+$0.3	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63¢	$8.81	$9.08	+$0.27	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$6.31	$6.2	-$0.11	39% 992-1523 (2515)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.85	$3.8	-$0.06	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 61¢	$1.56	$1.54	-$0.03	40% 2104-3149 (5253)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.04

Value

$123.46

PnL

+$3.42

Record

44%

789-985 (1774)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.99

Value

$46.05

PnL

+$2.05

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.35

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.54

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.94

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.29

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$0.27

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.11

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.