Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 5?

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 43¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 5

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$302.4

Combined PnL

$30.53

Smart Money Entry

32.9¢ → 42.5¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$153.89

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$28.4

No12 traders

Total Value$148.51

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$2.14

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 32.9¢	$125.05	$153.44	+$28.4	43% 818-1092 (1910)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$34.68	$31.96	-$2.71	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$29.37	$28.13	-$1.24	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$23.91	$22.98	-$0.93	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 61¢	$58.07	$14.04	-$0.57	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$30.13	$11.4	-$0.94	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 58¢	$12.79	$9.99	+$0.18	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$18.38	$9.55	-$0.24	55% 4498-3708 (8206)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$22.81	$5.96	-$0.17	39% 1105-1735 (2840)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$17.5	$5.77	-$0.27	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$7	$4.93	-$0.46	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$19.13	$3.1	+$0.09	41% 1160-1663 (2823)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$8.4	$0.7	+$9.4	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$0.45	$0.45	+$0	47% 1713-1907 (3620)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$125.05

Value

$153.44

PnL

+$28.4

Record

43%

818-1092 (1910)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$34.68

Value

$31.96

PnL

-$2.71

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.91

Value

$22.98

PnL

-$0.93

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$58.07

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$0.57

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$30.13

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.94

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.18

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$22.81

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

1105-1735 (2840)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$17.5

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.46

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.13

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$9.4

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.