Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 5?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$287.47

Combined PnL

-$0.23

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 98.3¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$286.67

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$0.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$0

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.6¢	$112.75	$112.5	-$0.25	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$37.07	$37	-$0.07	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$28.96	$29.01	+$0.05	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$28.88	$28.88	-$0	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$14.63	$14.77	+$0.14	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$13.1	$13.09	-$0.01	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$10.74	$10.76	+$0.01	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$10.03	$10.03	-$0	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.03	$9.92	-$0.11	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$9.81	$9.84	+$0.03	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$8.85	$8.85	-$0.01	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$2.04	$2.04	-$0	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.62	$0.62	+$0	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	+$0	53% 29396-26298 (55694)

Lucerys

Invested

$112.75

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$37.07

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$28.96

Value

$29.01

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.63

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$10.76

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.03

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.