Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 5?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$180.97
-$2.82
98.5¢ → 97.8¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.6¢ | $112.75 | $110.9 | -$1.85 | 77% 12521-3667 (16188) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $35.93 | $35.4 | -$0.53 | 40% 2175-3220 (5395) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $14.63 | $14.56 | -$0.07 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $10.03 | $9.78 | -$0.25 | 47% 2137-2439 (4576) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $9.81 | $9.7 | -$0.11 | 59% 11831-8157 (19988) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.64 | $0.64 | +$0 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
LucerysInvested
$112.75
Value
$110.9
PnL
-$1.85
Record
77%
12521-3667 (16188)
Invested
$35.93
Value
$35.4
PnL
-$0.53
Record
40%
2175-3220 (5395)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$14.56
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$9.78
PnL
-$0.25
Record
47%
2137-2439 (4576)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$9.7
PnL
-$0.11
Record
59%
11831-8157 (19988)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.