Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 4?

3 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (19%) · Yes at 39¢ · $899 held · ended Nov 4

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 19%

Total Value

$899.21

Combined PnL

$111.23

Smart Money Entry

30¢ → 39¢

+30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$660.43

Total Shares1,581

Combined PnL+$124.91

No13 traders

Total Value$238.78

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$13.67

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$254.04	$313.03	-$2.88	53% 3821-3402 (7223)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$552.9	$218.39	+$91.71	42% 799-1116 (1915)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$111.92	$129	+$36.08	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.6¢	$64.09	$58.64	-$5.45	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$58.59	$53.49	-$5.1	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
Istaroth	Noavg 71.7¢	$179.64	$40.8	+$10.9	15% 459-2699 (3158)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$35.08	$26.97	-$8.11	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$22.77	$22.05	-$0.72	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$11.82	$9.44	-$2.38	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$7.08	$6.91	-$0.17	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$6.16	$6.34	+$0.18	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.8	$5.08	-$1.72	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$3.5	$2.95	-$0.55	50% 634-639 (1273)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$2.95	-$0.65	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$1.88	$1.95	+$0.07	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 61¢	$1.26	$1.22	+$0.03	55% 628-504 (1132)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$254.04

Value

$313.03

PnL

-$2.88

Record

53%

3821-3402 (7223)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$552.9

Value

$218.39

PnL

+$91.71

Record

42%

799-1116 (1915)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.92

Value

$129

PnL

+$36.08

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$64.09

Value

$58.64

PnL

-$5.45

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$58.59

Value

$53.49

PnL

-$5.1

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Istaroth

Invested

$179.64

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$10.9

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$35.08

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$8.11

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.77

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$2.38

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.08

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.34

PnL

+$0.18

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$1.72

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.65

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

628-504 (1132)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.