Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 30?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 70¢ · $918 held · ends Oct 30

Yes70¢No30¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$917.78

Combined PnL

$82.46

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 69.5¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$871.86

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$90.79

No1 trader

Total Value$45.93

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$8.33

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 49.8¢	$304.12	$394.05	+$89.93	47% 631-718 (1349)
Istaroth	Yesavg 54.1¢	$279.88	$272.01	-$3.23	21% 295-1102 (1397)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 66.7¢	$139.97	$141.75	+$1.78	59% 1723-1189 (2912)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$61.74	$64.05	+$2.31	50% 1752-1734 (3486)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$54.25	$45.93	-$8.33	61% 20945-13330 (34275)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$304.12

Value

$394.05

PnL

+$89.93

Record

47%

631-718 (1349)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$279.88

Value

$272.01

PnL

-$3.23

Record

21%

295-1102 (1397)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$139.97

Value

$141.75

PnL

+$1.78

Record

59%

1723-1189 (2912)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.74

Value

$64.05

PnL

+$2.31

Record

50%

1752-1734 (3486)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$54.25

Value

$45.93

PnL

-$8.33

Record

61%

20945-13330 (34275)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.