Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 65¢ · $716 held · ends Oct 31

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$716.42

Combined PnL

$42.62

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 65¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$497.46

Total Shares630

Combined PnL+$34.74

Yes3 traders

Total Value$218.96

Total Shares943

Combined PnL+$7.88

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 72.8¢	$361.67	$386.98	+$30.46	21% 292-1070 (1362)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 22.1¢	$181.32	$192.33	+$11.01	51% 620-601 (1221)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$90.41	$94.69	+$4.28	61% 20914-13310 (34224)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$28.3	$25.01	-$3.29	50% 1737-1720 (3457)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.8	$15.8	-$0	18% 523-2344 (2867)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.47	$1.63	+$0.16	53% 6451-5652 (12103)

Istaroth

Invested

$361.67

Value

$386.98

PnL

+$30.46

Record

21%

292-1070 (1362)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.32

Value

$192.33

PnL

+$11.01

Record

51%

620-601 (1221)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$90.41

Value

$94.69

PnL

+$4.28

Record

61%

20914-13310 (34224)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.3

Value

$25.01

PnL

-$3.29

Record

50%

1737-1720 (3457)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$0

Record

18%

523-2344 (2867)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

6451-5652 (12103)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.