Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 4?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes67¢No33¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$53.59

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 66.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$985.69

Total Shares1,490

Combined PnL+$78.97

No8 traders

Total Value$135.79

Total Shares419

Combined PnL-$25.38

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 63¢	$518.63	$550.25	+$31.62	48% 2166-2364 (4530)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 54.7¢	$554.6	$341.08	+$37.46	41% 799-1129 (1928)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$176.32	$156.59	-$10.25	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.2¢	$98.99	$108.07	+$9.08
└ No leg	Noavg 42.5¢	$68.81	$48.53	-$19.33
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$115.05	$115	-$0.05	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.3¢	$72.74	$70.2	-$2.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.4¢	$42.31	$44.8	+$2.49
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$79.89	$59.44	-$20.45	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$48.55	$53.22	+$4.67	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$29.15	$27.27	-$1.88	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 67.9¢	$27.23	$25.52	-$1.72	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$28.59	$13.75	-$4.41	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 35.7¢	$20.54	$12.62	-$1.73	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$20.75	$10.7	-$3.19	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.88	$8.42	+$0.61	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$0.87	$7.2	+$6.33	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 40.8¢	$7.41	$5.44	-$1.97	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$6.5	$5.04	-$1.46	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$10.66	$1.54	+$9.71	53% 29253-26162 (55415)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$518.63

Value

$550.25

PnL

+$31.62

Record

48%

2166-2364 (4530)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$554.6

Value

$341.08

PnL

+$37.46

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$176.32

Value

$156.59

PnL

-$10.25

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

Yes$98.9961.2¢+$9.08

No$68.8142.5¢-$19.33

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$115.05

Value

$115

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Both legs:

No$72.7437.3¢-$2.54

Yes$42.3160.4¢+$2.49

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$79.89

Value

$59.44

PnL

-$20.45

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.55

Value

$53.22

PnL

+$4.67

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$1.88

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.23

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$1.72

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$28.59

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$4.41

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$20.54

Value

$12.62

PnL

-$1.73

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.75

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$3.19

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.88

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$6.33

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$1.97

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$1.46

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$10.66

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$9.71

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.