Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $753 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$752.54
$5.64
72.3¢ → 79¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $280.86 | $329.51 | +$48.65 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $220.94 | $160.95 | -$59.99 | 50% 673-672 (1345) |
 fildoroCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $93.17 | $110.88 | -$5.63 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $88.55 | $88.65 | +$22.6 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $62.55 | $62.55 | +$0 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
Invested
$280.86
Value
$329.51
PnL
+$48.65
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Invested
$220.94
Value
$160.95
PnL
-$59.99
Record
50%
673-672 (1345)
fildoroCTRInvested
$93.17
Value
$110.88
PnL
-$5.63
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$88.55
Value
$88.65
PnL
+$22.6
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Invested
$62.55
Value
$62.55
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.