Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 6?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$580.06
42.2¢ → 56¢
+33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$405.12 | 32% 2216-4715 (6931) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $511.36 | $605.46 | +$94.11 | 39% 835-1312 (2147) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $318.8 | $415.19 | +$96.4 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.5¢ | $192.56 | $190.27 | -$2.29 | |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $62.18 | $49.57 | -$12.61 | 52% 30789-28932 (59721) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Noavg 4.8¢ | $15.34 | $47.48 | +$188.12 | 38% 1263-2071 (3334) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $14.44 | $4.52 | -$1.78 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.7 | +$1.2 | 17% 4487-21970 (26457) |
Invested
$1,450.32
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$405.12
Record
32%
2216-4715 (6931)
Invested
$511.36
Value
$605.46
PnL
+$94.11
Record
39%
835-1312 (2147)
Both legs:
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$62.18
Value
$49.57
PnL
-$12.61
Record
52%
30789-28932 (59721)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$47.48
PnL
+$188.12
Record
38%
1263-2071 (3334)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$4.52
PnL
-$1.78
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
2B9S<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$1.2
Record
17%
4487-21970 (26457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.